Harris trade policy may diverge tactically despite continuity of Biden Administration approaches

ANALYSIS

Vice President Harris’ rise as the likely nominee for the Democratic candidate for president has raised questions about how she may differ from President Biden, particularly on trade issues. The next Administration will come into office in a complex trade landscape, particularly vis-a-vis China, and assertive US trade policy towards China is likely to continue regardless of who wins the White House. Harris’ potential nomination would not cause significant change in the Democratic approach to US policy towards China. The balance of power in Congress will also play a significant role in shaping China and trade policy. Congress controlled by the same party as the President may be more likely to support the President's trade agenda, while a divided Congress may result in more gridlock and difficulty in passing trade-related legislation.

Harris and Biden have both expressed support for fair trade policies that prioritize the American worker, and a Harris Administration writ large would provide continuity of current Biden Administration policies. However, Harris’ policy positioning on trade issues during her 2020 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination and her voting record in the US Senate indicate a few areas where her stance may differ from President Biden. For example, Harris was one of ten Senators who voted against approving the US-Mexico-Canda Agreement (USMCA) on the grounds that the labor and environmental clauses of the agreement were not strong enough. This indicates that a Harris Administration may prioritize these issues during the USMCA review period in 2026, either through revision of existing provisions or the addition of new regulations.

The 2024 campaign is likely to focus primarily on domestic policy issues, with voter concerns such as immigration taking top priority for both campaigns. Because of this, signals from the Harris campaign on where the candidate falls on trade issues are likely to be limited. Harris’ work on US immigration policy as Vice President is likely to be highlighted, and it is possible that some trade policy positioning may come up in the context of campaigning around US border security and the industrial policy packages passed under the current Administration. Businesses should watch for signals regarding Harris’ trade policy as she addresses these two areas and the extent to which she claims credit for or deflects on the Biden Administration’s trade policy record over the last four years.