Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

TOPIC: POLITICS

"China Week" Does Not Address Key Trade Issues

September 9, 2024

The US House of Representatives has released a list of proposed China-focused legislation expected to come to a vote over the course of what Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) dubbed “China Week”.

Walz VP pick indicates continuity in democratic approach to trade

August 9, 2024

By selecting Walz, Harris signals continuity with existing Biden-era trade policy including a focus on worker protections and environmental issues.

Republican trade policy platform sets the stage for negotiations

July 24, 2024

The platform as described would be a historic change in US trade policy and, by extension, macroeconomic policy.

Harris trade policy may diverge tactically despite continuity of Biden Administration approaches

July 23, 2024

If Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for the presidency her approach towards trade policy is likely to be a second-tier issue as domestic challenges will lead the electoral conversation as a key issues for voters, particularly immigration.

The Old is New Again: China’s Third Plenum Likely to Be Redux of Supply-Side Reform

July 12, 2024

Supply-side reform will likely continue to be the focal point for the Third Plenum, despite public calls from key figures for stimulating domestic demand.

UK and France Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

July 9, 2024

An overwhelming Labour majority puts the onus on center-left Prime Minister Keir Starmer to deliver on reforms to spur faster economic growth. In France, a hung parliament ends President Macron’s reform agenda and will make France largely ungovernable for the next three years. A weakened Macron may also quiet France’s voice in the EU but won’t drive massive changes to EU policy.

European Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

June 20, 2024

A more right-wing European Parliament will reduce the introduction of new sustainability initiatives, but won’t drive massive changes in EU policymaking.

India's Elections and Investment Dynamics

May 23, 2024

India aims to become the leading manufacturer in Asia as companies diversify their supply chains away from China. Strengthening supply chain efficiency and fostering the growth of the manufacturing sector are seen as crucial for achieving this goal, with both alliances prioritizing these areas.

With EU Elections, Russia and China Relations Come Into Focus

May 22, 2024

Despite a rightward shift, overall EU relations with Russia and China will remain tense. EU concerns on China are wide-ranging and fundamental.

Mexico’s Elections and the Future of Nearshoring

May 1, 2024

Mexico is experiencing an investment surge despite minimal federal government support and as businesses in Mexico face deteriorating infrastructure and security.

Continued Tough Stance on China, Regardless of Election Outcome

February 28, 2024

Companies in critical technology areas will see increased scrutiny on business dealings with China, especially around outbound investment and partnerships with Chinese companies regardless of where they are operating.

China’s Property Sector Correction Weighs on Growth

February 14, 2024

With as much as 70% of household wealth tied to property values, the future of the sector bears on consumer confidence and China’s ability to accelerate growth. Further structural economic reforms are needed to ensure healthier and more sustainable growth.

Supply Chain Implications of Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Elections

January 4, 2024

The election outcome will influence the range of Beijing’s responses and the potential for further tensions, as well as the direction of the Taiwanese economy, including its semiconductor industry.