Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

TOPIC: TRADE

A credible PNTR bill offers insight into pathways to China tariffs

November 21, 2024

The Restoring Trade Fairness Act aims to repeal Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China, subjecting Chinese imports to tariffs, quotas, and other trade remedies.

The world has changed. Have Trump’s goals changed along with it?

November 14, 2024

Geopolitical conflicts and economic strategies are shaping the next Trump administration's trade policies, with a focus on key appointments and their implications for global trade.

US Elections - economic policy signals from VP Harris

October 10, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris released her economic plan. The bulk of her investments are poised to impact services with a smaller investment in modernization of traditional industries alongside advanced industries.

EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: business impacts and outlook under CBAM

October 3, 2024

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) aims to eliminate 99% of tariffs by 2030, increasing EU's access to Vietnam’s market. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may challenge the EVFTA's effectiveness by increasing export costs.

Another view of China’s deep involvement in global supply chains

September 12, 2024

Rhetoric on derisking trade from China is growing due to geopolitical tensions, but strong trade complementarity remains, highlighting China's crucial role in global supply chains.

"China Week" does not address key trade issues

September 9, 2024

The US House of Representatives has released a list of proposed China-focused legislation expected to come to a vote over the course of what Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) dubbed “China Week”.

Increase in e-commerce goods from China prompts scrutiny in the US and Europe

August 15, 2024

Changes to de minimis rules and other restrictions on Chinese e-commerce companies, if successful, could help reduce strains in the air freight market, where e-commerce goods are taking ever more capacity across Asia outbound.

Walz VP pick indicates continuity in democratic approach to trade

August 9, 2024

By selecting Walz, Harris signals continuity with existing Biden-era trade policy including a focus on worker protections and environmental issues.

Republican trade policy platform sets the stage for negotiations

July 24, 2024

The platform as described would be a historic change in US trade policy and, by extension, macroeconomic policy.

Harris trade policy may diverge tactically despite continuity of Biden Administration approaches

July 23, 2024

If Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for the presidency her approach towards trade policy is likely to be a second-tier issue as domestic challenges will lead the electoral conversation as a key issues for voters, particularly immigration.

Scope of USG supply chain interests likely to be clarified by the end of 2024

June 27, 2024

These restrictions will take place as part of broader efforts to counter China as a strategic rival to the United States throughout the US government. Increases in tariffs and investment screening on a wider swathe of technologies is likely to impact firms that previously benefited from relatively open trade regimes for their products.

US Probes China Shipbuilding, Signaling Focus on Heavy Industry

May 9, 2024

The probe is the latest indication of rapidly growing concerns in Washington that America lacks the industrial capacity necessary to support its national security needs.

Continued Tough Stance on China, Regardless of Election Outcome

February 28, 2024

Companies in critical technology areas will see increased scrutiny on business dealings with China, especially around outbound investment and partnerships with Chinese companies regardless of where they are operating.

Will the US revoke Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China? Implications for Global Companies

December 12, 2023

For multinational firms, revocation of PNTR would mean immediate tariff increases ranging from 19-61% thereby drastically increasing the cost of goods and inputs imported by the US from China.

US readying additional trade and investment restrictions on China

May 25, 2023

US policymakers are poised to implement at least nine restrictions on China in 2023 across six industries, ranging from telecoms to agriculture and oil and gas.